5 November 2008

Consumption

Consumption
Retail sales rose in September from 11.6% a year and 1.8% over the month. This indicator shows that consumption of Poles remained buoyant, which is a weight to support the economy.

Growth in 2009
As we noted recently (see article lpj 13 October) the government is beginning to admit that the rate of growth in 2009, as incorporated in the budget (4.8%) will not be held because of the economic crisis affecting already many partners of Poland.
The Ministry of Economy has revised its estimate to 4%, even though many observers consider that this figure remains difficult to reach.

Accelerated depreciation of the zloty in October
The zloty, which had appreciated so strong for months against the euro (from 3.8 PLN / euro 3.20 on July 28) against a backdrop of strong growth and high interest rates has depreciated sharply in October 3.84pln/euro to October 27, a depreciation of 20% in 3 months. It seems that this phenomenon is explained by risk aversion on the part of international investors away from emerging countries to reposition itself on the dollar or yen. The same phenomenon has occurred for example in Brazil or the real rose from 2.4 to 1 euro in September to 3.2 or 33% depreciation before they resume in recent days to 2.7. The Polish Minister of Economy seeks to reassure markets by explaining that economic fundamentals were good and that access weakness was temporary.

Employment
The unemployment rate rose in September to below 9% with a rate of 8.9%.
Polish 1,377,000 jobseekers are currently a decline of nearly 400,000 in one year. However, this trend should be reversed given the predictable returns of migrants and plans to reduce activity of export-oriented industries.

High inflation
Contrary to what is happening in Western Europe, with inflation ebbs, the latest figures published in Poland shows that the rate of inflation is 4.3% year on year, against 4% in August 2008. Even excluding energy remains above the rate in August (2.9% vs 2.7%)

Industrial Production
Industrial production grew by 7% in September against a decline of 2.7% in August. This increase is very important, even if the number of calendar days in August was unfavorable.
This increase of 17% from one month to another shows that the Polish economy is not (yet) impacted by the effects of financial crisis.

by erectusplus at 15:02:00 |

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